{"F": {"ts_code": "002531.SZ", "name": "天顺风能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101231", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.2, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.2656, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1114064.794, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.5, 21.6, 19.0, 22.8, 19.5, 18.9], "rev_series": [80.5, 81.7, 67.4, 77.3, 48.6, 53.9], "np_series": [10.5, 13.1, 6.3, 8.0, 2.0, -2.4], "roe_series": [16.8, 18.1, 7.8, 9.3, 2.3, -2.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 52.2, "np_ttm": -1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": -25.8, "fcf_yield": -23.2, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 9.1, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.8, "fix_assets": 150.1, "goodwill_ratio": 6.7, "pb_calc": 1.27, "capex_dep": 3.74, "interest_debt": 140.7, "debt_ebitda": 11.0, "debt_ratio": 64.9, "debt_mv": 126.3, "payout": 17.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -7.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -7.8, "np_yoy": 115.6, "np_vol": 88.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 16.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 60.0, "peg": 0.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["风电陆上装备", 20.0], ["发电", 15.0], ["风电海工装备", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.1, "ret_prev2_year": -31.4, "ret_ytd": -9.6, "ret_pivot": -7.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.0, "ret_60": -36.1, "ret_120": -50.1, "ret_250": -13.3, "mdd_250": -53.7, "vol_250": 42.6, "pos_52w": 47.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 84, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 53%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 11.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -23.2%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 3.74 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -36% / -50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "天顺风能:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.5个百分点。"]}}