{"F": {"ts_code": "002529.SZ", "name": "海源复材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101224", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.06, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 32.1882, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 183560.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [11.8, 1.9, 3.6, 4.4, -8.5, -2.2], "rev_series": [3.0, 2.5, 3.6, 3.1, 1.9, 3.9], "np_series": [0.3, -1.1, -1.5, -1.5, -1.6, -1.9], "roe_series": [3.9, -14.2, -22.3, -28.4, -43.2, -94.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": -1.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": -2.9, "gm_median": 1.9, "gm_std": 4.7, "gm_stab": -1.49, "gm_chg_2022": -8.2, "npm_median": -47.7, "roe_median": -28.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.5, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 32.19, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 91.7, "debt_mv": 15.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.3, "np_yoy": 24.9, "np_vol": 172.9, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光伏业务", 36.0], ["复合材料制品业务", 30.0], ["复合材料制品", 30.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -21.8, "ret_prev2_year": -30.0, "ret_ytd": 1.7, "ret_pivot": 18.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": -4.5, "ret_120": 1.0, "ret_250": 8.3, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 36.6, "pos_52w": 79.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 5, "hard": 78, "bondness": 21}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 1.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点;资产负债率 92%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 1.9%,稳定度 -149%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 -2.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.9%,稳定度 -149%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -4% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "海源复材:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 24.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 30.5个百分点。"]}}