{"F": {"ts_code": "002522.SZ", "name": "浙江众成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "膜材料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.19, "pe_ttm": 61.9609, "pb": 2.0005, "dv_ttm": 0.3854, "total_mv": 470099.5086, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.6, 23.9, 20.9, 18.5, 16.4, 16.7], "rev_series": [14.5, 18.0, 18.8, 17.3, 17.1, 16.1], "np_series": [1.7, 1.8, 1.5, 1.0, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [9.1, 9.0, 7.3, 4.7, 3.3, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.6, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 18.5, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -5.7, "npm_median": 4.0, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 37.3, "fix_assets": 12.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.0, "capex_dep": 0.07, "interest_debt": 8.2, "debt_ebitda": 3.2, "debt_ratio": 32.0, "debt_mv": 17.4, "payout": 31.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -5.2, "np_cagr3": -27.6, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": 48.5, "np_vol": 13.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["热塑性弹性体", 44.0], ["POF普通型膜", 21.0], ["POF交联膜", 19.0], ["POF印刷膜等", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 45.4, "ret_prev2_year": -18.3, "ret_ytd": -7.7, "ret_pivot": 72.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.0, "ret_60": -25.4, "ret_120": -15.6, "ret_250": -4.1, "mdd_250": -48.0, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 62.5}, "S": {"duration": 79, "pricing": 43, "hard": 60, "bondness": 43}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.5%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 62.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -25% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "浙江众成:PE 比行业中位高 20.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.4个百分点。"]}}