{"F": {"ts_code": "002521.SZ", "name": "齐峰新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "造纸", "sw3": "特种纸", "ind": "造纸", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.58, "pe_ttm": 21.5196, "pb": 0.9374, "dv_ttm": 4.1033, "total_mv": 368520.2038, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.4, 10.9, 7.9, 14.0, 10.2, 12.0], "rev_series": [28.1, 37.0, 31.2, 36.6, 33.9, 33.6], "np_series": [1.6, 1.7, 0.1, 2.4, 1.1, 1.5], "roe_series": [4.6, 4.7, 0.2, 6.5, 2.9, 3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.4, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_yield": 8.9, "ocf_yield": 9.7, "gm_median": 10.9, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -6.5, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 3.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.5, "fix_assets": 14.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 0.94, "capex_dep": 0.18, "interest_debt": 6.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 26.6, "debt_mv": 17.8, "payout": 96.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.5, "np_cagr3": 163.3, "rev_yoy": -0.8, "np_yoy": 26.1, "np_vol": 1088.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["装饰原纸系列", 38.0], ["装饰原纸", 38.0], ["乳胶纸系列", 6.0], ["乳胶纸", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -13.9, "ret_prev2_year": 26.4, "ret_ytd": -18.3, "ret_pivot": -26.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.5, "ret_60": -3.4, "ret_120": -16.0, "ret_250": -28.2, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 32.2, "pos_52w": 66.9}, "S": {"duration": 42, "pricing": 38, "hard": 42, "bondness": 82}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 96%、股息率 4.1%、营收 3 年复合 2.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.9%(经营现金流/市值 9.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.18 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.5 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -3% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「造纸」25 家中位:PE 21.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 13.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 33%。", "齐峰新材:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.4个百分点。"]}}