{"F": {"ts_code": "002518.SZ", "name": "科士达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101207", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.24, "pe_ttm": 32.6807, "pb": 4.3281, "dv_ttm": 1.2417, "total_mv": 2109983.7624, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.9, 31.3, 31.8, 32.9, 29.4, 29.0], "rev_series": [24.2, 28.1, 44.0, 54.4, 41.6, 52.7], "np_series": [3.0, 3.7, 6.6, 8.5, 3.9, 6.1], "roe_series": [11.2, 12.7, 19.9, 21.8, 9.2, 13.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 57.0, "np_ttm": 6.5, "ocf_ttm": 9.5, "fcf_ttm": 7.3, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 31.3, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 13.3, "roe_median": 13.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.9, "fix_assets": 14.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 4.33, "capex_dep": 2.34, "interest_debt": 2.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 39.0, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 33.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.2, "np_cagr3": -2.4, "rev_yoy": 19.8, "np_yoy": 13.6, "np_vol": 43.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 39.0], ["智慧电源、数据中心产品", 23.0], ["智慧电源、数据中心", 23.0], ["光储充产品及系统", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 120.0, "ret_prev2_year": -17.5, "ret_ytd": -24.6, "ret_pivot": 148.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.9, "ret_60": -20.5, "ret_120": -31.9, "ret_250": 3.1, "mdd_250": -53.6, "vol_250": 61.6, "pos_52w": 56.6}, "S": {"duration": 56, "pricing": 53, "hard": 29, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 32.7 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.3%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.3%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.34 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 32.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -20% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "科士达:PE 比行业中位低 36.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.8个百分点。"]}}