{"F": {"ts_code": "002515.SZ", "name": "金字火腿", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "食品加工", "sw3": "肉制品", "ind": "食品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.42, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.4632, "dv_ttm": 0.1348, "total_mv": 898275.6622, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.6, 20.4, 25.0, 25.0, 22.0, 25.3], "rev_series": [7.1, 5.1, 4.4, 3.1, 3.4, 3.2], "np_series": [0.6, 0.4, 0.5, 0.4, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [4.5, 3.2, 3.4, 2.0, 2.4, 1.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.0, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": 0.0, "gm_median": 25.0, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.5, "npm_median": 11.3, "roe_median": 2.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 28.1, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.46, "capex_dep": 6.8, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 3.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -10.7, "np_cagr3": -19.8, "rev_yoy": -9.3, "np_yoy": -135.5, "np_vol": 39.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 371.0, "fwd_pe2": 296.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 25.0, "peg": 14.84, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["火腿", 39.0], ["肉制品", 19.0], ["特色肉制品", 19.0], ["品牌肉", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.4, "ret_prev2_year": -19.5, "ret_ytd": 22.0, "ret_pivot": 86.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": 19.7, "ret_250": 3.8, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 60.8, "pos_52w": 64.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 45, "bondness": 41}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 3%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 6.80 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -2% / 20%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「食品加工」27 家中位:PE 29.8 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 23.4% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 62%。", "金字火腿:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}