{"F": {"ts_code": "002513.SZ", "name": "蓝丰生化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "农药", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101203", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.4, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 406.7245, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 202820.76, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.7, -0.3, 0.7, -2.0, -2.1, 3.1], "rev_series": [13.4, 14.4, 14.5, 17.4, 17.9, 23.4], "np_series": [0.1, -4.9, -3.2, -3.3, -2.5, -1.9], "roe_series": [1.3, -53.8, -62.6, -173.6, -874.3, -499.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.1, "np_ttm": -2.1, "ocf_ttm": -2.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.3, "fcf_yield": -16.2, "ocf_yield": -12.0, "gm_median": -0.3, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 7.5, "gm_chg_2022": -13.1, "npm_median": -20.0, "roe_median": -173.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.2, "fix_assets": 16.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 406.72, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 5.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 93.0, "debt_mv": 26.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 17.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 5.4, "np_yoy": -33.6, "np_vol": 1373.5, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["组件", 23.0], ["电池片", 13.0], ["农药原药及制剂", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 50.0, "ret_prev2_year": -35.3, "ret_ytd": -19.6, "ret_pivot": 53.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": -1.8, "ret_120": -26.1, "ret_250": -1.5, "mdd_250": -58.4, "vol_250": 59.6, "pos_52w": 51.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 66, "bondness": 6}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -0.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.1 个百分点;资产负债率 93%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.3%,稳定度 750%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -16.2%(经营现金流/市值 -12.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.3%,稳定度 750%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 60%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -2% / -26%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "蓝丰生化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 20.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.6个百分点。"]}}