{"F": {"ts_code": "002511.SZ", "name": "中顺洁柔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "美容护理", "sw2": "个护用品", "sw3": "生活用纸", "ind": "个护用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.11, "pe_ttm": 23.1257, "pb": 1.6452, "dv_ttm": 1.4652, "total_mv": 910889.5446, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.3, 35.9, 32.0, 33.2, 30.7, 34.0], "rev_series": [78.2, 91.5, 85.7, 98.0, 81.5, 87.8], "np_series": [9.1, 5.8, 3.5, 3.3, 0.8, 3.2], "roe_series": [19.9, 11.7, 6.9, 6.2, 1.4, 5.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 88.6, "np_ttm": 3.9, "ocf_ttm": 16.2, "fcf_ttm": 12.9, "fcf_yield": 14.2, "ocf_yield": 17.8, "gm_median": 33.2, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -9.4, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.7, "fix_assets": 28.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.65, "capex_dep": 0.81, "interest_debt": 8.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 33.8, "debt_mv": 9.1, "payout": 32.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 0.8, "np_cagr3": -3.1, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": 50.1, "np_vol": 142.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 78.0, "earn_yield": 4.3, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 20.1, "fwd_pe2": 16.8, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 1.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["成品类", 49.0], ["成品", 49.0], ["半成品及其他", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.0, "ret_prev2_year": -31.8, "ret_ytd": -16.5, "ret_pivot": 17.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.2, "ret_60": 5.2, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -18.5, "mdd_250": -27.1, "vol_250": 28.9, "pos_52w": 78.7}, "S": {"duration": 44, "pricing": 54, "hard": 54, "bondness": 42}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 50%,PE TTM 23.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 20.1 倍,PEG 1.06。", "自由现金流 12.9 亿(正),次年预期增速 19%(7 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 34%、毛利率 33.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(美容护理)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 14.2%(经营现金流/市值 17.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.2%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 23.1 倍 粗算,约 78%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 5% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「个护用品」12 家中位:PE 25.1 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 28.2% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 70%。", "中顺洁柔:PE 比行业中位低 2.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.9个百分点。"]}}