{"F": {"ts_code": "002507.SZ", "name": "涪陵榨菜", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101123", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.35, "pe_ttm": 17.7869, "pb": 1.4707, "dv_ttm": 3.7004, "total_mv": 1309698.065, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [58.3, 52.4, 53.1, 50.7, 51.0, 51.6], "rev_series": [22.7, 25.2, 25.5, 24.5, 23.9, 24.3], "np_series": [7.8, 7.4, 9.0, 8.3, 8.0, 7.7], "roe_series": [24.7, 14.0, 12.0, 10.3, 9.4, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.8, "np_ttm": 7.4, "ocf_ttm": 9.0, "fcf_ttm": 4.3, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 6.9, "gm_median": 51.6, "gm_std": 0.9, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 33.5, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.9, "fix_assets": 19.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.47, "capex_dep": 4.63, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 6.9, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 60.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.5, "np_cagr3": -5.1, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": -7.2, "np_vol": 10.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 16.6, "fwd_pe2": 15.8, "fwd_g1": 7.0, "fwd_g2": 5.0, "peg": 3.32, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["榨菜", 42.0], ["泡菜", 4.0], ["其他产品", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.0, "ret_prev2_year": 1.1, "ret_ytd": -9.1, "ret_pivot": -1.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.0, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -11.3, "ret_250": -15.3, "mdd_250": -19.6, "vol_250": 16.4, "pos_52w": 84.4}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 64, "hard": 32, "bondness": 64}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 61%、股息率 3.7%、营收 3 年复合 -1.5%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.6%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 6.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.6%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 4.63 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.8 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -15%,最大回撤 -20%,年化波动 16%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -3% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "涪陵榨菜:PE 比行业中位低 9.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 17.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 18.8个百分点。"]}}