{"F": {"ts_code": "002506.SZ", "name": "协鑫集成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101118", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 21.2016, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1480130.0492, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.3, 7.3, 6.5, 9.1, 8.9, 2.3], "rev_series": [59.6, 47.0, 83.5, 159.7, 162.4, 153.4], "np_series": [-26.4, -19.8, 0.6, 1.6, 0.7, -11.7], "roe_series": [-61.1, -60.9, 2.6, 6.7, 2.8, -66.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 122.9, "np_ttm": -12.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 2.1, "gm_median": 7.3, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.66, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.4, "fix_assets": 47.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 21.2, "capex_dep": 0.32, "interest_debt": 44.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 95.6, "debt_mv": 30.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 22.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -39.7, "np_yoy": -31.6, "np_vol": 747.4, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["组件", 45.0], ["电池片", 3.0], ["系统集成包", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 4.9, "ret_prev2_year": -2.6, "ret_ytd": -9.6, "ret_pivot": 42.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.6, "ret_60": -20.2, "ret_120": -53.3, "ret_250": -4.5, "mdd_250": -61.4, "vol_250": 62.0, "pos_52w": 41.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 32, "hard": 47, "bondness": 3}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -12.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 96%,有息负债 45 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.3%,稳定度 66%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 0.32 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -20% / -53%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "协鑫集成:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点。"]}}