{"F": {"ts_code": "002500.SZ", "name": "山西证券", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "非银金融", "sw2": "证券Ⅱ", "sw3": "证券Ⅲ", "ind": "证券Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101115", "is_fin": true, "roles": {"fin": true, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.42, "pe_ttm": 19.3985, "pb": 1.0408, "dv_ttm": 2.3985, "total_mv": 1945656.153, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, null, null, null, null, null], "rev_series": [33.4, 39.9, 41.6, 34.7, 31.5, 33.5], "np_series": [7.5, 8.0, 5.7, 6.2, 7.1, 9.2], "roe_series": [5.1, 4.7, 3.3, 3.5, 4.0, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.8, "np_ttm": 10.0, "ocf_ttm": 26.4, "fcf_ttm": 25.1, "fcf_yield": 12.9, "ocf_yield": 13.6, "gm_median": null, "gm_std": null, "gm_stab": null, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": 20.3, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.4, "fix_assets": 3.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.04, "capex_dep": 1.8, "interest_debt": 189.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 79.9, "debt_mv": 97.5, "payout": 50.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.0, "np_cagr3": 17.2, "rev_yoy": 8.1, "np_yoy": 15.0, "np_vol": 19.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 21.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入：手续费及佣金收入", 13.0], ["手续费及佣金净收入", 10.0], ["证券经纪业务", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.1, "ret_prev2_year": 20.3, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 15.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.5, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": -6.1, "ret_250": -19.1, "mdd_250": -27.7, "vol_250": 22.1, "pos_52w": 81.0}, "S": {"duration": 38, "pricing": null, "hard": null, "bondness": 55}, "label": "金融·利差生意", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["山西证券 是证券Ⅱ。银行赚的是利差,券商保险赚的是资产端与费率,毛利率与固定资产两个轴对它没有意义。", "ROE 近 5 年中位 4.0%,PB 1.04倍,股息率 2.4%,分红率 50%。", "利率上行对银行是净息差扩张(少数受益方向);对保险是资产端浮亏、对券商是交投与融资成本。"], "加息期怎么走": "按笔记:日债/美债收益率上行期,银行股是例外的受益方向;红利型大行按'现金流红利'拿,盯息差而不盯黄金。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "金融业现金流表不适用;用盈利收益率 5.2%(1/PE)与股息率 2.4% 看。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.4 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -28%,年化波动 22%,现价在 52 周高点的 81%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 12% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「证券Ⅱ」50 家中位:PE 15.7 / 股息率 1.9% / 毛利率 10.2% / 固定资产占比 0% / 分红率 33%。", "山西证券:PE 比行业中位高 3.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 ;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}