{"F": {"ts_code": "002498.SZ", "name": "汉缆股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101109", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.61, "pe_ttm": 37.9615, "pb": 2.489, "dv_ttm": 0.6051, "total_mv": 2199012.156, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, 20.5, 20.2, 19.7, 16.8, 14.0], "rev_series": [69.5, 89.8, 98.4, 96.6, 92.6, 104.1], "np_series": [5.8, 7.8, 7.9, 7.6, 6.6, 5.5], "roe_series": [10.9, 12.9, 11.7, 10.3, 8.3, 6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 115.5, "np_ttm": 5.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 0.9, "gm_median": 19.7, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 10.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.7, "fix_assets": 13.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.49, "capex_dep": 1.28, "interest_debt": 33.9, "debt_ebitda": 4.9, "debt_ratio": 36.8, "debt_mv": 15.4, "payout": 20.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": -11.0, "rev_yoy": 25.0, "np_yoy": 9.0, "np_vol": 17.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["电力电缆", 35.0], ["裸电线", 6.0], ["特种电缆", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.5, "ret_prev2_year": -14.8, "ret_ytd": 74.4, "ret_pivot": 136.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -8.3, "ret_120": -29.4, "ret_250": 84.1, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 65.0, "pos_52w": 60.3}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 46, "hard": 16, "bondness": 44}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 38.0 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.7%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.28 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.0 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 84%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -8% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "汉缆股份:PE 比行业中位低 5.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.2个百分点。"]}}