{"F": {"ts_code": "002495.SZ", "name": "佳隆股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "sw3": "调味发酵品Ⅲ", "ind": "调味发酵品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.42, "pe_ttm": 131.2096, "pb": 2.0531, "dv_ttm": 0.4015, "total_mv": 226421.3952, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.3, 32.9, 25.1, 20.3, 34.7, 32.5], "rev_series": [2.4, 2.8, 2.1, 2.6, 2.7, 2.5], "np_series": [0.1, 0.3, -0.5, -0.4, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [0.8, 2.2, -4.6, -3.9, 2.2, 1.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.7, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 3.2, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 32.5, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -9.3, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 1.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.4, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.05, "capex_dep": 0.55, "interest_debt": 0.4, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 8.8, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": 38.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 6.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 22.3, "np_yoy": -24.6, "np_vol": 172.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["鸡粉", 24.0], ["其他产品", 11.0], ["其他主营业务", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.1, "ret_prev2_year": -20.7, "ret_ytd": -8.7, "ret_pivot": 65.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.7, "ret_60": 5.2, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -12.3, "mdd_250": -33.0, "vol_250": 34.9, "pos_52w": 79.1}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 49, "hard": 71, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 131 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 9%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 4.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 44%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.5%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 44%,资本开支/折旧 0.55 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 131.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 5% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「调味发酵品Ⅱ」15 家中位:PE 27.1 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 34.4% / 固定资产占比 39% / 分红率 67%。", "佳隆股份:PE 比行业中位高 104.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.7个百分点。"]}}