{"F": {"ts_code": "002494.SZ", "name": "华斯股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "非运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.8, "pe_ttm": 80.0458, "pb": 1.4541, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 181109.136, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-22.0, 27.9, -18.2, 30.3, 28.0, 32.5], "rev_series": [3.4, 4.2, 3.2, 4.0, 5.0, 4.7], "np_series": [-3.5, 0.2, -3.2, -0.1, 0.2, 0.2], "roe_series": [-20.1, 1.1, -22.5, -1.1, 1.8, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 3.6, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 28.0, "gm_std": 19.2, "gm_stab": 0.31, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 3.6, "roe_median": 1.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.1, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 0.06, "interest_debt": 1.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.3, "debt_ratio": 17.9, "debt_mv": 6.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 13.6, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 19.0, "np_yoy": 22.5, "np_vol": 816.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["裘皮服装", 28.0], ["商业综合体业务", 10.0], ["商业综合体", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 35.1, "ret_prev2_year": -27.7, "ret_ytd": -10.9, "ret_pivot": 58.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -17.0, "ret_250": -7.9, "mdd_250": -36.4, "vol_250": 34.8, "pos_52w": 75.6}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 35, "hard": 23, "bondness": 10}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 80 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 28.0%,稳定度 31%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.06 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 80.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -4% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "华斯股份:PE 比行业中位高 42.4倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.5个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}