{"F": {"ts_code": "002493.SZ", "name": "荣盛石化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "炼油化工", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.38, "pe_ttm": 26.8156, "pb": 3.0144, "dv_ttm": 0.6664, "total_mv": 14364818.0274, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.7, 26.5, 10.8, 11.5, 11.5, 12.2], "rev_series": [1072.6, 1770.2, 2890.9, 3251.1, 3264.8, 3086.2], "np_series": [73.1, 128.2, 33.4, 11.6, 7.2, 8.5], "roe_series": [24.6, 29.9, 7.0, 2.5, 1.6, 1.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2894.0, "np_ttm": 53.6, "ocf_ttm": 590.7, "fcf_ttm": 116.4, "fcf_yield": 8.1, "ocf_yield": 41.1, "gm_median": 11.5, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.48, "gm_chg_2022": -8.9, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 2.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 75.0, "fix_assets": 3019.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.01, "capex_dep": 2.42, "interest_debt": 2198.6, "debt_ebitda": 5.9, "debt_ratio": 74.1, "debt_mv": 153.1, "payout": 111.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -36.7, "rev_yoy": -12.9, "np_yoy": 748.8, "np_vol": 56.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 16.8, "fwd_pe2": 14.7, "fwd_g1": 60.0, "fwd_g2": 14.0, "peg": 1.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["化工产品", 20.0], ["化工", 20.0], ["炼油产品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.2, "ret_prev2_year": -11.9, "ret_ytd": 23.9, "ret_pivot": 73.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.7, "ret_60": 33.8, "ret_120": 6.4, "ret_250": 47.6, "mdd_250": -32.5, "vol_250": 44.8, "pos_52w": 90.3}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 26, "hard": 100, "bondness": 72}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 75%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 75%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 48%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.1%(经营现金流/市值 41.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.5%,稳定度 48%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 75%,资本开支/折旧 2.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.8 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 48%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 34% / 6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "荣盛石化:PE 比行业中位高 2.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.9个百分点。"]}}