{"F": {"ts_code": "002492.SZ", "name": "恒基达鑫", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "仓储物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101102", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.96, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.54, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 241380.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [48.2, 47.9, 51.9, 46.8, 45.4, 41.6], "rev_series": [3.7, 4.1, 4.0, 3.9, 3.4, 3.4], "np_series": [1.0, 1.2, 1.3, 1.2, 0.7, -0.6], "roe_series": [7.7, 8.2, 8.2, 7.0, 3.9, -3.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": -1.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.8, "fcf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_yield": 11.4, "ocf_yield": 15.8, "gm_median": 46.8, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 28.8, "roe_median": 7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.1, "fix_assets": 6.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 1.5, "interest_debt": 3.4, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 25.8, "debt_mv": 14.2, "payout": 27.2, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -5.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -17.4, "np_yoy": -175.1, "np_vol": 79.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["仓储", 18.0], ["主营业务-仓储", 18.0], ["装卸", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 82.5, "ret_prev2_year": -18.1, "ret_ytd": -31.8, "ret_pivot": 37.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": 3.3, "ret_120": -27.6, "ret_250": -17.7, "mdd_250": -50.9, "vol_250": 47.3, "pos_52w": 61.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 66, "hard": 51, "bondness": 33}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 3 亿,经营现金流/市值 15.8%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 32%、毛利率 46.8% 看起来两条都占,但价格受管制(物流:电价/通行费/港口费由主管部门或市场化机制定),高毛利来自成本结构不是提价能力。通胀来了它不能提价,利润跟不上通胀,所以不算。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 11.4%(经营现金流/市值 15.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.50 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 3% / -28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "恒基达鑫:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 36.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点。"]}}