{"F": {"ts_code": "002491.SZ", "name": "通鼎互联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信线缆及配套", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.38, "pe_ttm": 116.1881, "pb": 9.3815, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 2506728.791, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.3, 14.2, 19.3, 22.4, 20.5, 19.5], "rev_series": [35.9, 29.8, 33.2, 33.5, 29.2, 34.1], "np_series": [0.5, -6.1, 1.3, 2.4, 0.8, -0.8], "roe_series": [1.7, -24.7, 5.8, 10.1, 3.1, -3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 43.5, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 19.5, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 4.0, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 7.9, "fix_assets": 5.2, "goodwill_ratio": 2.6, "pb_calc": 9.38, "capex_dep": 2.09, "interest_debt": 26.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 55.9, "debt_mv": 10.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 1.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 61.5, "np_yoy": 326.0, "np_vol": 543.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电力电缆", 27.0], ["安全业务", 18.0], ["互联网安全", 18.0], ["通信电缆", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 16.7, "ret_prev2_year": -1.9, "ret_ytd": 239.7, "ret_pivot": 513.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.1, "ret_60": -15.3, "ret_120": 81.2, "ret_250": 251.4, "mdd_250": -64.2, "vol_250": 80.7, "pos_52w": 52.9}, "S": {"duration": 95, "pricing": 50, "hard": 13, "bondness": 32}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 2.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 116 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 56%,有息负债 26 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 8%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 2.09 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 116.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 251%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -15% / 81%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "通鼎互联:PE 比行业中位高 31.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点。"]}}