{"F": {"ts_code": "002489.SZ", "name": "浙江永强", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "成品家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4272, "dv_ttm": 2.1429, "total_mv": 607324.592, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.3, 14.1, 17.2, 23.6, 20.6, 18.9], "rev_series": [49.5, 81.5, 82.2, 48.4, 56.8, 56.6], "np_series": [5.3, 1.3, 2.2, 0.5, 4.6, 4.7], "roe_series": [14.1, 3.4, 6.2, 1.4, 12.0, 10.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.1, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -5.6, "fcf_yield": -9.1, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 18.9, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -11.1, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.3, "fix_assets": 10.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.43, "capex_dep": 3.62, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 39.7, "debt_mv": 15.4, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.7, "np_cagr3": 29.0, "rev_yoy": 8.1, "np_yoy": -100.8, "np_vol": 335.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["休闲家具", 46.0], ["遮阳家具", 26.0], ["遮阳制品", 26.0], ["金属制品", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.1, "ret_prev2_year": 7.2, "ret_ytd": -25.7, "ret_pivot": 9.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": -16.2, "ret_120": -22.0, "ret_250": -27.5, "mdd_250": -38.2, "vol_250": 31.6, "pos_52w": 67.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 23, "bondness": 51}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.1%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.9%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -28%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -16% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "浙江永强:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 17.3个百分点。"]}}