{"F": {"ts_code": "002488.SZ", "name": "金固股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101021", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.21, "pe_ttm": 147.0902, "pb": 2.3474, "dv_ttm": 0.1203, "total_mv": 817255.5011, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.8, 10.7, 7.6, 9.7, 11.6, 14.9], "rev_series": [26.2, 27.3, 30.2, 33.6, 33.6, 38.3], "np_series": [-1.6, 0.7, 1.1, 0.3, 0.2, 0.4], "roe_series": [-4.2, 1.8, 2.8, 0.8, 0.6, 1.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 40.0, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": -8.0, "fcf_yield": -9.8, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 10.7, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -5.3, "npm_median": 2.5, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.7, "fix_assets": 39.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.35, "capex_dep": 6.16, "interest_debt": 33.6, "debt_ebitda": 8.8, "debt_ratio": 57.6, "debt_mv": 41.1, "payout": 40.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": -27.7, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": 46.2, "np_vol": 76.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 39.1, "fwd_pe2": 13.6, "fwd_g1": 276.0, "fwd_g2": 187.0, "peg": 0.21, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽车零部件制造业", 43.0], ["汽车零部件制造", 43.0], ["钢贸业务", 10.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.7, "ret_prev2_year": 45.8, "ret_ytd": -6.5, "ret_pivot": 11.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.6, "ret_60": -14.7, "ret_120": -32.3, "ret_250": -39.5, "mdd_250": -42.3, "vol_250": 46.1, "pos_52w": 60.8}, "S": {"duration": 97, "pricing": 36, "hard": 64, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.7%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 8.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%,稳定度 77%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.7%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 6.16 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 147.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -15% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "金固股份:PE 比行业中位高 116.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.2个百分点。"]}}