{"F": {"ts_code": "002487.SZ", "name": "大金重工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "风电设备", "sw3": "风电零部件", "ind": "风电设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101015", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.22, "pe_ttm": 21.2431, "pb": 1.7029, "dv_ttm": 0.5208, "total_mv": 2458565.1904, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 23.0, 16.7, 23.4, 29.8, 31.2], "rev_series": [33.3, 44.3, 51.1, 43.3, 37.8, 61.7], "np_series": [4.7, 5.8, 4.5, 4.3, 4.7, 11.0], "roe_series": [21.1, 21.3, 9.5, 6.3, 6.7, 14.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 65.8, "np_ttm": 11.6, "ocf_ttm": 25.2, "fcf_ttm": -5.9, "fcf_yield": -2.4, "ocf_yield": 10.3, "gm_median": 23.4, "gm_std": 5.2, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 12.5, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.3, "fix_assets": 63.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 18.42, "interest_debt": 23.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 33.5, "debt_mv": 9.4, "payout": 10.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.5, "np_cagr3": 34.8, "rev_yoy": 14.5, "np_yoy": 9.9, "np_vol": 54.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 13.6, "fwd_pe2": 9.1, "fwd_g1": 56.0, "fwd_g2": 49.0, "peg": 0.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["风电装备产品", 49.0], ["风电塔筒", 49.0], ["新能源发电", 2.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 156.2, "ret_prev2_year": -22.7, "ret_ytd": -35.9, "ret_pivot": 94.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -21.1, "ret_60": -43.2, "ret_120": -58.8, "ret_250": 1.1, "mdd_250": -62.9, "vol_250": 54.2, "pos_52w": 37.1}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 43, "hard": 47, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.2 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 29%,毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.4%(经营现金流/市值 10.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.4%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 18.42 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.2 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -63%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 37%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -21% / -43% / -59%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「风电设备」31 家中位:PE 32.3 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 17.3% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 32%。", "大金重工:PE 比行业中位低 11.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}