{"F": {"ts_code": "002486.SZ", "name": "嘉麟杰", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "服装家纺", "sw3": "运动服装", "ind": "服装家纺", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20101015", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.99, "pe_ttm": 71.9456, "pb": 2.2847, "dv_ttm": 0.4013, "total_mv": 246460.6469, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 17.3, 21.6, 25.2, 21.3, 21.7], "rev_series": [11.7, 11.6, 13.7, 9.9, 11.8, 12.7], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.9, 0.5, 0.2, 0.5], "roe_series": [1.8, 2.2, 9.6, 5.1, 1.8, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.1, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 21.6, "gm_std": 2.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 4.1, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.2, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 1.7, "pb_calc": 2.28, "capex_dep": 2.43, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 16.4, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 21.4, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -2.5, "np_cagr3": -20.8, "rev_yoy": 7.9, "np_yoy": -40.6, "np_vol": 158.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["成衣", 68.0], ["面料", 32.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.1, "ret_prev2_year": -16.2, "ret_ytd": -3.5, "ret_pivot": 71.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.2, "ret_60": 28.9, "ret_120": -3.5, "ret_250": 6.5, "mdd_250": -36.7, "vol_250": 40.0, "pos_52w": 90.1}, "S": {"duration": 83, "pricing": 48, "hard": 39, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 71.9 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%、固定资产占比 24%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 24%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 24%,资本开支/折旧 2.43 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 71.9 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -37%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 90%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 27% / 29% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「服装家纺」60 家中位:PE 37.6 / 股息率 2.4% / 毛利率 41.5% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 66%。", "嘉麟杰:PE 比行业中位高 34.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 19.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.1个百分点。"]}}