{"F": {"ts_code": "002484.SZ", "name": "江海股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "被动元件", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100929", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.32, "pe_ttm": 68.488, "pb": 7.3086, "dv_ttm": 0.4571, "total_mv": 4790150.6048, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.9, 25.9, 26.4, 26.1, 24.9, 24.1], "rev_series": [26.4, 35.5, 45.2, 48.4, 48.1, 54.8], "np_series": [3.7, 4.3, 6.6, 7.1, 6.5, 6.7], "roe_series": [10.2, 10.6, 14.4, 13.6, 11.5, 11.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.4, "np_ttm": 7.0, "ocf_ttm": 10.9, "fcf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 13.7, "roe_median": 11.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.6, "fix_assets": 24.8, "goodwill_ratio": 1.5, "pb_calc": 7.31, "capex_dep": 50.04, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 26.4, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 32.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 0.7, "rev_yoy": 17.0, "np_yoy": 6.9, "np_vol": 20.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 52.9, "fwd_pe2": 41.1, "fwd_g1": 30.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.82, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["铝电解电容", 79.0], ["薄膜电容", 10.0], ["超级电容", 8.0], ["电极箔", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.6, "ret_prev2_year": 11.6, "ret_ytd": 91.3, "ret_pivot": 375.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.7, "ret_60": -32.0, "ret_120": 85.8, "ret_250": 101.6, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 76.3, "pos_52w": 50.7}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 53, "hard": 44, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 68.5 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 28%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 50.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 68.5 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 102%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -32% / 86%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "江海股份:PE 比行业中位高 3.3倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}