{"F": {"ts_code": "002481.SZ", "name": "双塔食品", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "其他农产品加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.36, "pe_ttm": 469.8646, "pb": 2.1971, "dv_ttm": 0.2226, "total_mv": 537891.674, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [27.2, 26.4, 5.2, 14.8, 15.0, 20.2], "rev_series": [20.2, 21.7, 23.8, 24.6, 24.5, 21.2], "np_series": [3.5, 2.7, -3.1, 0.9, 0.9, 0.3], "roe_series": [12.8, 9.8, -12.2, 3.8, 3.7, 1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 7.4, "gm_median": 15.0, "gm_std": 7.0, "gm_stab": 0.53, "gm_chg_2022": -22.0, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.6, "fix_assets": 22.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.2, "capex_dep": 2.07, "interest_debt": 12.3, "debt_ebitda": 5.2, "debt_ratio": 44.8, "debt_mv": 22.8, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": -39.0, "np_vol": 111.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["食用蛋白", 32.0], ["粉丝", 24.0], ["其他主营业务", 14.0], ["其他", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": -5.0, "ret_prev2_year": 24.3, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 8.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": 9.3, "ret_120": -10.8, "ret_250": -20.9, "mdd_250": -40.8, "vol_250": 29.2, "pos_52w": 68.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 30, "hard": 81, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 51%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -22.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 51%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 53%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 7.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.0%,稳定度 53%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -22.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 51%,资本开支/折旧 2.07 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 469.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / 9% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "双塔食品:PE 比行业中位高 430.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.1个百分点。"]}}