{"F": {"ts_code": "002478.SZ", "name": "常宝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.01, "pe_ttm": 17.4571, "pb": 1.0601, "dv_ttm": 2.8317, "total_mv": 631463.7638, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.8, 8.6, 15.0, 18.8, 16.8, 16.2], "rev_series": [39.4, 42.3, 62.2, 66.6, 57.0, 58.9], "np_series": [1.2, 1.4, 4.7, 7.8, 6.3, 4.8], "roe_series": [2.8, 3.1, 10.7, 16.0, 11.7, 8.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.5, "np_ttm": 3.6, "ocf_ttm": 6.4, "fcf_ttm": 4.7, "fcf_yield": 7.5, "ocf_yield": 10.1, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 8.4, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 31.9, "fix_assets": 27.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.06, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 31.4, "debt_mv": 4.4, "payout": 31.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -1.8, "np_cagr3": 0.8, "rev_yoy": 2.1, "np_yoy": -47.3, "np_vol": 100.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 71.0, "earn_yield": 5.7, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 14.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.3, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锅炉管", 31.0], ["油套管", 27.0], ["油井管", 27.0], ["品种管", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 69.8, "ret_prev2_year": 2.5, "ret_ytd": -15.2, "ret_pivot": 75.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.9, "ret_60": 4.5, "ret_120": -40.3, "ret_250": 28.2, "mdd_250": -58.5, "vol_250": 56.2, "pos_52w": 51.3}, "S": {"duration": 35, "pricing": 41, "hard": 51, "bondness": 49}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.5%(经营现金流/市值 10.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.5 倍 粗算,约 71%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 28%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 4% / -40%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "常宝股份:PE 比行业中位高 1.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}