{"F": {"ts_code": "002476.SZ", "name": "新叶股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "石油石化", "sw2": "炼化及贸易", "sw3": "其他石化", "ind": "炼化及贸易", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.14, "pe_ttm": 88.5081, "pb": 3.235, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 314568.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.7, 15.2, 21.9, 16.8, 18.4, 17.5], "rev_series": [4.5, 6.6, 5.9, 3.9, 5.4, 6.0], "np_series": [0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [1.6, 2.2, 3.5, 0.6, 6.3, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.8, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.9, "gm_median": 17.5, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.7, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.23, "capex_dep": 1.1, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 63.6, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 0.6, "np_cagr3": 1.9, "rev_yoy": 29.3, "np_yoy": 26.6, "np_vol": 397.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["采油用化学品", 32.0], ["油田用化学品", 32.0], ["环保水处理", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 72.0, "ret_prev2_year": -34.2, "ret_ytd": -29.0, "ret_pivot": 45.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 13.7, "ret_60": 2.0, "ret_120": -16.6, "ret_250": -7.9, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 43.0, "pos_52w": 65.2}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 49, "hard": 20, "bondness": 43}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 88.5 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.5%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 1.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 88.5 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 14% / 2% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「炼化及贸易」30 家中位:PE 24.2 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 10.6% / 固定资产占比 43% / 分红率 49%。", "新叶股份:PE 比行业中位高 64.3倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 30.4个百分点。"]}}