{"F": {"ts_code": "002472.SZ", "name": "双环传动", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.05, "pe_ttm": 25.446, "pb": 3.1122, "dv_ttm": 1.2087, "total_mv": 3234241.2485, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.4, 19.5, 21.1, 22.2, 25.0, 27.3], "rev_series": [36.6, 53.9, 68.4, 80.7, 87.8, 91.1], "np_series": [0.5, 3.3, 5.8, 8.2, 10.2, 12.6], "roe_series": [1.4, 7.7, 9.5, 10.7, 12.2, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 94.4, "np_ttm": 12.7, "ocf_ttm": 25.2, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 1.0, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 22.2, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": 3.7, "npm_median": 10.3, "roe_median": 10.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.9, "fix_assets": 99.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 3.11, "capex_dep": 2.29, "interest_debt": 45.5, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 46.3, "debt_mv": 14.1, "payout": 18.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.0, "np_cagr3": 29.4, "rev_yoy": 7.8, "np_yoy": 1.6, "np_vol": 199.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 22.7, "fwd_pe2": 19.5, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 1.42, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["乘用车齿轮", 30.0], ["工程机械齿轮", 5.0], ["智能执行机构", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 57.4, "ret_prev2_year": 18.7, "ret_ytd": -19.3, "ret_pivot": 84.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.1, "ret_60": -6.7, "ret_120": 0.3, "ret_250": 1.4, "mdd_250": -32.1, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 74.3}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 52, "hard": 78, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 25.4 倍、股息率 1.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%、固定资产占比 49%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 49%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.0%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 49%,资本开支/折旧 2.29 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.4 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 74%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -7% / 0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "双环传动:PE 比行业中位低 4.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 23.4个百分点。"]}}