{"F": {"ts_code": "002470.SZ", "name": "金正大", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "复合肥", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.09, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.2073, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 686779.8102, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.6, 15.7, 6.7, 8.3, 12.4, 12.9], "rev_series": [93.5, 93.2, 99.8, 85.5, 83.3, 99.2], "np_series": [-31.8, -5.7, -9.8, -9.7, 0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [-51.4, -13.5, -28.4, -39.0, 2.9, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 110.7, "np_ttm": -3.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": 3.7, "gm_median": 12.4, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": -6.0, "roe_median": -13.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.2, "fix_assets": 40.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.21, "capex_dep": 0.62, "interest_debt": 54.8, "debt_ebitda": 17.5, "debt_ratio": 86.3, "debt_mv": 79.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -0.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 24.1, "np_yoy": -534.5, "np_vol": 68.8, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["常规复合肥", 17.0], ["磷肥", 16.0], ["新型肥料", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.2, "ret_prev2_year": 12.6, "ret_ytd": 17.4, "ret_pivot": 57.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.2, "ret_60": -5.0, "ret_120": -35.1, "ret_250": 18.1, "mdd_250": -50.0, "vol_250": 53.4, "pos_52w": 58.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 52, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 17.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 74%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.4%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.62 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / -5% / -35%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "金正大:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.4个百分点。"]}}