{"F": {"ts_code": "002468.SZ", "name": "申通快递", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "快递", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.31, "pe_ttm": 11.2324, "pb": 1.8631, "dv_ttm": 0.6986, "total_mv": 2190577.8995, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [3.4, 2.3, 4.4, 4.2, 6.0, 6.4], "rev_series": [215.7, 252.5, 336.7, 409.2, 471.7, 555.9], "np_series": [0.4, -9.1, 2.9, 3.4, 10.4, 13.7], "roe_series": [0.4, -10.9, 3.6, 4.0, 11.2, 13.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 630.5, "np_ttm": 19.5, "ocf_ttm": 51.2, "fcf_ttm": 19.1, "fcf_yield": 8.7, "ocf_yield": 23.4, "gm_median": 4.4, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.67, "gm_chg_2022": 1.0, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 4.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.9, "fix_assets": 130.5, "goodwill_ratio": 2.8, "pb_calc": 1.86, "capex_dep": 2.02, "interest_debt": 97.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 62.3, "debt_mv": 44.7, "payout": 9.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 18.2, "np_cagr3": 68.2, "rev_yoy": 29.8, "np_yoy": 128.3, "np_vol": 1082.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 55.0, "earn_yield": 8.9, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 10.1, "fwd_pe2": 8.6, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["经济快递", 27.0], ["经济", 27.0], ["时效快递", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.7, "ret_prev2_year": 31.0, "ret_ytd": 7.4, "ret_pivot": 43.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.9, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": 2.0, "ret_250": -21.6, "mdd_250": -34.1, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 75.5}, "S": {"duration": 24, "pricing": 34, "hard": 67, "bondness": 15}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 11.2 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%、固定资产占比 42%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 67%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.7%(经营现金流/市值 23.4%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 4.4%,稳定度 67%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 2.02 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 11.2 倍 粗算,约 55%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 3% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "申通快递:PE 比行业中位低 10.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 24.3个百分点。"]}}