{"F": {"ts_code": "002467.SZ", "name": "二六三", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信应用增值服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.78, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.2512, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 657427.7682, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [55.3, 51.0, 48.4, 46.0, 45.0, 42.4], "rev_series": [9.7, 8.9, 9.0, 8.9, 8.7, 8.0], "np_series": [3.5, 0.3, 0.3, -2.6, 0.7, -2.8], "roe_series": [15.7, 1.5, 1.4, -12.5, 3.7, -16.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.5, "np_ttm": -3.4, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -5.4, "ocf_yield": 1.6, "gm_median": 46.0, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -6.9, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.1, "fix_assets": 0.6, "goodwill_ratio": 14.4, "pb_calc": 4.25, "capex_dep": 24.79, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 19.3, "debt_mv": 0.5, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 15.0, "np_yoy": -153.7, "np_vol": 377.9, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["全球化网络业务", 21.0], ["云网络业务", 21.0], ["数智化通信业务", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.5, "ret_prev2_year": 19.0, "ret_ytd": -21.5, "ret_pivot": 40.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.6, "ret_60": -5.7, "ret_120": -30.1, "ret_250": -25.3, "mdd_250": -47.0, "vol_250": 50.9, "pos_52w": 60.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 5, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.4 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 19%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 46.0%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 46.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 24.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -25%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -6% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "二六三:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 25.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.0个百分点。"]}}