{"F": {"ts_code": "002466.SZ", "name": "天齐锂业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "锂", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 45.35, "pe_ttm": 16.815, "pb": 1.6078, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 7768932.5355, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.5, 62.0, 85.1, 85.0, 46.1, 39.5], "rev_series": [32.4, 76.6, 404.5, 405.0, 130.6, 103.5], "np_series": [-18.3, 20.8, 241.2, 73.0, -79.0, 4.6], "roe_series": [-30.1, 23.1, 78.8, 14.6, -16.9, 1.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 177.6, "np_ttm": 46.2, "ocf_ttm": 33.5, "fcf_ttm": 4.8, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 62.0, "gm_std": 19.0, "gm_stab": 0.69, "gm_chg_2022": 43.6, "npm_median": 33.8, "roe_median": 14.6, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 25.5, "fix_assets": 212.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 3.01, "interest_debt": 152.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 28.5, "debt_mv": 19.7, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -36.5, "np_cagr3": -73.2, "rev_yoy": 153.3, "np_yoy": 4925.5, "np_vol": 444.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 70.0, "earn_yield": 5.9, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 11.7, "fwd_pe2": 10.7, "fwd_g1": 44.0, "fwd_g2": 9.0, "peg": 1.3, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["锂化合物及衍生品", 29.0], ["锂矿", 21.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 67.8, "ret_prev2_year": -39.4, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 81.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.3, "ret_60": -25.7, "ret_120": -16.3, "ret_250": 3.4, "mdd_250": -48.2, "vol_250": 55.3, "pos_52w": 55.5}, "S": {"duration": 34, "pricing": 70, "hard": 41, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 16.8 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 62.0%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 62.0%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 62.0%,稳定度 69%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 43.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 3.01 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.8 倍 粗算,约 70%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -26% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "天齐锂业:PE 比行业中位低 1.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 43.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.0个百分点。"]}}