{"F": {"ts_code": "002465.SZ", "name": "海格通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100831", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.0, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2382, "dv_ttm": 0.5953, "total_mv": 2481833.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.3, 37.3, 35.0, 32.6, 28.8, 23.7], "rev_series": [51.2, 54.7, 56.2, 64.5, 49.2, 43.9], "np_series": [5.9, 6.5, 6.7, 7.0, 0.5, -7.9], "roe_series": [6.0, 6.5, 6.4, 6.0, 0.4, -6.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.2, "np_ttm": -9.7, "ocf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_ttm": -10.5, "fcf_yield": -4.2, "ocf_yield": -1.5, "gm_median": 32.6, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 11.4, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.0, "fix_assets": 36.1, "goodwill_ratio": 3.7, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 4.12, "interest_debt": 55.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 45.0, "debt_mv": 22.5, "payout": 175.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -7.5, "np_yoy": -7307.6, "np_vol": 625.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 131.6, "fwd_pe2": 48.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 174.0, "peg": 0.76, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["数智生态", 18.0], ["数智产品", 18.0], ["无线通信", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 44.5, "ret_prev2_year": -13.7, "ret_ytd": -36.3, "ret_pivot": 16.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.8, "ret_60": -26.5, "ret_120": -37.3, "ret_250": -31.4, "mdd_250": -64.3, "vol_250": 56.7, "pos_52w": 37.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 27, "bondness": 62}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -9.7 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 56 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.6%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.2%(经营现金流/市值 -1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.6%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 4.12 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -26% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "海格通信:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点。"]}}