{"F": {"ts_code": "002463.SZ", "name": "沪电股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 111.5, "pe_ttm": 42.3803, "pb": 11.9275, "dv_ttm": 0.4484, "total_mv": 21456653.025, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.4, 27.2, 30.3, 31.2, 34.5, 35.5], "rev_series": [74.6, 74.2, 83.4, 89.4, 133.4, 189.5], "np_series": [13.4, 10.6, 13.6, 15.1, 25.9, 38.2], "roe_series": [23.5, 15.7, 17.6, 16.8, 23.9, 28.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 241.4, "np_ttm": 50.6, "ocf_ttm": 29.3, "fcf_ttm": -24.9, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 1.4, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.1, "npm_median": 16.7, "roe_median": 17.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 27.7, "fix_assets": 104.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.93, "capex_dep": 7.72, "interest_debt": 83.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 52.2, "debt_mv": 3.9, "payout": 37.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 31.5, "np_cagr3": 41.1, "rev_yoy": 61.2, "np_yoy": 73.7, "np_vol": 31.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 24, "fwd_pe": 34.5, "fwd_pe2": 22.0, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 57.0, "peg": 0.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["数据通讯", 28.0], ["企业通讯市场板", 28.0], ["汽车板", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 87.8, "ret_prev2_year": 87.4, "ret_ytd": 53.6, "ret_pivot": 257.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.4, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": 38.2, "ret_250": 94.1, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 68.9, "pos_52w": 71.9}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 55, "hard": 44, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.4 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%、固定资产占比 28%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.2%),硬资产占比 28%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 28%,资本开支/折旧 7.72 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.4 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 94%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -12% / 38%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "沪电股份:PE 比行业中位低 22.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.2个百分点。"]}}