{"F": {"ts_code": "002461.SZ", "name": "珠江啤酒", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "非白酒", "sw3": "啤酒", "ind": "非白酒", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.68, "pe_ttm": 19.9057, "pb": 1.7017, "dv_ttm": 2.1889, "total_mv": 1921169.138, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [50.2, 45.0, 42.4, 42.8, 46.3, 48.3], "rev_series": [42.5, 45.4, 49.3, 53.8, 57.3, 58.8], "np_series": [5.7, 6.1, 6.0, 6.2, 8.1, 9.0], "roe_series": [6.5, 6.7, 6.3, 6.4, 7.9, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.4, "np_ttm": 9.7, "ocf_ttm": 14.6, "fcf_ttm": 7.6, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 45.0, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -7.7, "npm_median": 13.8, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.6, "fix_assets": 40.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.7, "capex_dep": 2.32, "interest_debt": 19.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 28.9, "debt_mv": 10.1, "payout": 45.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.0, "np_cagr3": 14.7, "rev_yoy": 5.0, "np_yoy": 10.0, "np_vol": 10.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 19.5, "fwd_pe2": 18.1, "fwd_g1": 2.0, "fwd_g2": 8.0, "peg": 2.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["啤酒销售", 32.0], ["啤酒", 32.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.5, "ret_prev2_year": 28.5, "ret_ytd": -4.6, "ret_pivot": 11.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.1, "ret_60": -2.8, "ret_120": -9.7, "ret_250": -17.6, "mdd_250": -28.9, "vol_250": 25.4, "pos_52w": 81.6}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 60, "hard": 41, "bondness": 48}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 19.9 倍、股息率 2.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.0%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.0%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.32 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.9 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -18%,最大回撤 -29%,年化波动 25%,现价在 52 周高点的 82%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -3% / -10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「非白酒」16 家中位:PE 22.9 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 40.5% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 60%。", "珠江啤酒:PE 比行业中位低 3.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点。"]}}