{"F": {"ts_code": "002460.SZ", "name": "赣锋锂业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "能源金属", "sw3": "锂", "ind": "能源金属", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": true, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 49.09, "pe_ttm": 16.0788, "pb": 2.1355, "dv_ttm": 0.3056, "total_mv": 10292672.8096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.4, 39.8, 49.5, 13.9, 10.8, 15.7], "rev_series": [55.2, 111.6, 418.2, 329.7, 189.1, 230.8], "np_series": [10.2, 52.3, 205.0, 49.5, -20.7, 16.1], "roe_series": [10.8, 32.1, 62.2, 10.9, -4.7, 3.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 378.0, "np_ttm": 64.0, "ocf_ttm": 39.7, "fcf_ttm": -8.8, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 3.9, "gm_median": 15.7, "gm_std": 15.7, "gm_stab": 0.0, "gm_chg_2022": 28.1, "npm_median": 13.9, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": true, "hard_ratio": 30.5, "fix_assets": 373.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.14, "capex_dep": 2.42, "interest_debt": 356.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 55.1, "debt_mv": 34.7, "payout": 25.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -18.0, "np_cagr3": -57.2, "rev_yoy": 175.7, "np_yoy": 901.4, "np_vol": 211.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 69.0, "earn_yield": 6.2, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 14.0, "fwd_pe2": 11.6, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 0.67, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["锂系列产品", 30.0], ["锂电池系列产品", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.8, "ret_prev2_year": -16.8, "ret_ytd": -21.8, "ret_pivot": 94.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": -29.7, "ret_120": -29.8, "ret_250": 25.5, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 55.3, "pos_52w": 53.8}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 70, "hard": 49, "bondness": 42}, "label": "钱的替代品", "tags": ["商品定价", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["硬资产:固定资产 + 在建 373 亿,占总资产 30%,重置成本随通胀上升。", "定价权来自商品本身:锂 的价格是通胀的组成部分,利润是商品价格的函数。", "当期现金流:自由现金流/市值 -0.9%,股息率 0.3%,估值里 5 年后的故事约占 69%。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两个条件都占:硬资产(占比 30%)和定价权(商品价格)。", "加息期怎么走": "信用体制切换时一阶受益,但它是切换的 β:2025 随黄金跑过一轮的,2026 随黄金退潮。加仓看 dollar-credit 面板信号,不预判。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 3.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.7%,稳定度 0%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 28.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 2.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 16.1 倍 粗算,约 69%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 26%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -30% / -30%。 钱的替代品是体制切换的 β:过去一年没动,若信号亮起弹性在这。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「能源金属」11 家中位:PE 17.9 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 18.4% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 31%。", "赣锋锂业:PE 比行业中位低 1.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.7个百分点;固定资产占比 与行业中位持平。"]}}