{"F": {"ts_code": "002458.SZ", "name": "益生股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "养殖业", "sw3": "肉鸡养殖", "ind": "养殖业", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100810", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.11, "pe_ttm": 27.9279, "pb": 2.8109, "dv_ttm": 1.6191, "total_mv": 1303816.9141, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.5, 14.0, 0.7, 31.6, 29.4, 17.8], "rev_series": [17.5, 20.9, 21.1, 32.2, 31.4, 29.5], "np_series": [0.9, 0.3, -3.7, 5.4, 5.0, 1.7], "roe_series": [2.7, 0.9, -12.4, 15.1, 11.3, 3.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 33.3, "np_ttm": 4.7, "ocf_ttm": 8.8, "fcf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 6.7, "gm_median": 17.8, "gm_std": 11.2, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": -12.8, "npm_median": 5.5, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 56.1, "fix_assets": 40.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.81, "capex_dep": 0.94, "interest_debt": 18.9, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 35.1, "debt_mv": 14.5, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 28.4, "np_yoy": 4897.3, "np_vol": 561.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.6, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 16.7, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 67.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.93, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["鸡收入", 42.0], ["鸡", 42.0], ["猪收入", 7.0], ["猪", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": -9.7, "ret_prev2_year": -9.5, "ret_ytd": 44.7, "ret_pivot": 62.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": 16.1, "ret_120": 22.2, "ret_250": 36.2, "mdd_250": -15.7, "vol_250": 39.8, "pos_52w": 87.8}, "S": {"duration": 50, "pricing": 26, "hard": 90, "bondness": 39}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 56%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 56%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 37%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 6.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.8%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 56%,资本开支/折旧 0.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.9 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -16%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 16% / 22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「养殖业」22 家中位:PE 39.4 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 11.1% / 固定资产占比 50% / 分红率 50%。", "益生股份:PE 比行业中位低 11.5倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.9个百分点。"]}}