{"F": {"ts_code": "002457.SZ", "name": "青龙管业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑材料", "sw2": "装修建材", "sw3": "管材", "ind": "装修建材", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.06, "pe_ttm": 30.781, "pb": 1.5954, "dv_ttm": 1.3141, "total_mv": 402185.0808, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.1, 26.4, 27.6, 30.0, 32.9, 29.7], "rev_series": [20.6, 24.3, 25.7, 20.6, 28.2, 26.2], "np_series": [1.7, 1.4, 1.7, 0.2, 2.7, 1.3], "roe_series": [8.2, 6.7, 7.5, 1.1, 11.3, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 26.4, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_yield": 6.8, "ocf_yield": 10.8, "gm_median": 29.7, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 1.5, "npm_median": 6.4, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.7, "fix_assets": 8.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 1.6, "capex_dep": 1.41, "interest_debt": 8.6, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 42.5, "debt_mv": 21.3, "payout": 41.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 0.7, "np_cagr3": -8.3, "rev_yoy": 1.9, "np_yoy": 7.6, "np_vol": 405.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["钢筋混凝土管材", 30.0], ["混凝土管", 30.0], ["塑料管材", 21.0], ["设计咨询", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.5, "ret_prev2_year": 26.9, "ret_ytd": 11.6, "ret_pivot": 58.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.4, "ret_60": 2.5, "ret_120": -0.5, "ret_250": 1.1, "mdd_250": -39.2, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 76.5}, "S": {"duration": 54, "pricing": 56, "hard": 28, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 30.8 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.8%(经营现金流/市值 10.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 30.8 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 2% / -0%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「装修建材」39 家中位:PE 36.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 20.7% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 51%。", "青龙管业:PE 比行业中位低 5.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.1个百分点。"]}}