{"F": {"ts_code": "002455.SZ", "name": "百川股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100803", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.71, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9911, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 557018.5875, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.4, 12.5, 10.1, 1.8, 10.1, 4.9], "rev_series": [21.9, 40.2, 41.3, 41.1, 55.6, 57.7], "np_series": [0.7, 2.3, 1.4, -4.7, 1.1, -1.1], "roe_series": [4.8, 13.7, 6.3, -22.0, 5.7, -5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.7, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 8.9, "gm_median": 10.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.61, "gm_chg_2022": 2.6, "npm_median": -1.6, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 62.5, "fix_assets": 79.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 0.76, "interest_debt": 62.3, "debt_ebitda": 7.3, "debt_ratio": 77.3, "debt_mv": 111.9, "payout": 33.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 11.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.1, "np_yoy": 31.2, "np_vol": 241.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["化工产品类", 47.0], ["新材料类产品", 21.0], ["新材料产品类", 21.0], ["新能源产品类", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -3.2, "ret_prev2_year": 0.7, "ret_ytd": 7.5, "ret_pivot": 17.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.4, "ret_60": -4.3, "ret_120": -49.6, "ret_250": 7.5, "mdd_250": -63.8, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 47.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 36, "hard": 100, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 62%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 10.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 7.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 62%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 10.1%,稳定度 61%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 8.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.1%,稳定度 61%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 0.76 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -4% / -50%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "百川股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.0个百分点。"]}}