{"F": {"ts_code": "002454.SZ", "name": "松芝股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.11, "pe_ttm": 19.5201, "pb": 1.1216, "dv_ttm": 4.8793, "total_mv": 449206.6096, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.1, 18.6, 18.1, 16.6, 15.2, 17.4], "rev_series": [33.8, 41.2, 42.3, 47.6, 50.0, 56.3], "np_series": [2.5, 1.1, 0.9, 1.0, 1.4, 2.5], "roe_series": [7.0, 3.1, 2.5, 2.6, 3.5, 6.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 56.8, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 8.6, "gm_median": 17.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -4.0, "npm_median": 3.2, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 14.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 1.12, "capex_dep": 1.27, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 44.0, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 45.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.0, "np_cagr3": 38.2, "rev_yoy": 2.2, "np_yoy": -12.2, "np_vol": 46.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 74.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["小车热管理产品", 31.0], ["乘用车空调", 31.0], ["大中型客车空调", 15.0], ["大中型客车热管理产品", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.3, "ret_prev2_year": -11.4, "ret_ytd": -15.9, "ret_pivot": 43.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.0, "ret_60": -2.7, "ret_120": -17.8, "ret_250": -20.7, "mdd_250": -39.8, "vol_250": 35.1, "pos_52w": 68.8}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 46, "hard": 29, "bondness": 55}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 46%、股息率 4.9%、营收 3 年复合 10.0%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 18%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 8.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.4%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 1.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.5 倍 粗算,约 74%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -3% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "松芝股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点。"]}}