{"F": {"ts_code": "002452.SZ", "name": "长高电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "输变电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.81, "pe_ttm": 8.9466, "pb": 2.3551, "dv_ttm": 1.0161, "total_mv": 732612.2101, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.9, 33.5, 31.3, 34.4, 38.9, 38.8], "rev_series": [15.6, 15.2, 12.2, 14.9, 17.6, 16.7], "np_series": [2.1, 2.5, 0.6, 1.7, 2.5, 3.4], "roe_series": [15.8, 14.2, 2.8, 7.9, 10.8, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 16.9, "np_ttm": 8.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -3.6, "npm_median": 14.3, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.3, "fix_assets": 5.4, "goodwill_ratio": 1.4, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 2.22, "interest_debt": 7.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 33.7, "debt_mv": 9.9, "payout": 21.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 10.8, "np_cagr3": 80.7, "rev_yoy": 4.0, "np_yoy": 451.4, "np_vol": 88.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 44.0, "earn_yield": 11.2, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 13.2, "fwd_pe2": 15.1, "fwd_g1": -32.0, "fwd_g2": -13.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["输变电设备产品", 48.0], ["电力设计与服务", 1.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.7, "ret_prev2_year": 5.7, "ret_ytd": 45.1, "ret_pivot": 71.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.7, "ret_60": 10.0, "ret_120": -4.1, "ret_250": 57.0, "mdd_250": -26.3, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 85.4}, "S": {"duration": 20, "pricing": 54, "hard": 18, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 8.9 倍、股息率 1.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.4%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.22 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 8.9 倍 粗算,约 44%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -26%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / 10% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "长高电气:PE 比行业中位低 34.6倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点。"]}}