{"F": {"ts_code": "002451.SZ", "name": "摩恩电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100720", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.75, "pe_ttm": 321.2169, "pb": 4.4242, "dv_ttm": 0.129, "total_mv": 341519.25, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 11.2, 12.6, 11.5, 9.1, 9.1], "rev_series": [4.5, 11.4, 10.8, 10.9, 13.4, 15.8], "np_series": [0.1, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [1.1, 1.8, 2.0, 2.2, 2.4, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.9, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -5.8, "ocf_yield": -3.7, "gm_median": 11.2, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -3.9, "npm_median": 1.6, "roe_median": 2.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.3, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.42, "capex_dep": 1.85, "interest_debt": 9.3, "debt_ebitda": 10.0, "debt_ratio": 54.9, "debt_mv": 27.3, "payout": 25.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 13.5, "np_cagr3": -10.3, "rev_yoy": -10.2, "np_yoy": 0.9, "np_vol": 35.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电磁线及其他", 46.0], ["电磁线", 46.0], ["其他业务", 5.0], ["电力电缆", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 61.7, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": -23.4, "ret_pivot": 49.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.3, "ret_60": 1.6, "ret_120": -29.8, "ret_250": 9.2, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 51.1}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 41, "hard": 36, "bondness": 31}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 321.2 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%、固定资产占比 22%、有息负债/EBITDA 10.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.8%(经营现金流/市值 -3.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.2%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 1.85 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 321.2 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 2% / -30%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "摩恩电气:PE 比行业中位高 277.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点。"]}}