{"F": {"ts_code": "002449.SZ", "name": "国星光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "LED", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.0789, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 403865.6116, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.2, 15.7, 12.1, 11.9, 11.5, 11.6], "rev_series": [32.6, 38.1, 35.8, 35.4, 34.7, 32.8], "np_series": [1.0, 2.0, 1.2, 0.9, 0.5, -0.1], "roe_series": [2.8, 5.5, 3.2, 2.3, 1.4, -0.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.5, "np_ttm": -0.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -4.4, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 11.9, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -0.0, "npm_median": 2.4, "roe_median": 2.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.4, "fix_assets": 19.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.08, "capex_dep": 0.51, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 34.0, "debt_mv": 6.6, "payout": 51.7, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -19.8, "np_yoy": -298.7, "np_vol": 72.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["LED封装及组件产品", 69.0], ["贸易及应用类产品", 11.0], ["其他业务", 6.0], ["外延芯片", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -37.7, "ret_prev2_year": 45.0, "ret_ytd": -22.8, "ret_pivot": -1.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -11.0, "ret_120": -29.3, "ret_250": -33.8, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 39.1, "pos_52w": 65.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 44, "hard": 55, "bondness": 41}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 34%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.0 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 87%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 0.51 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -11% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "国星光电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点。"]}}