{"F": {"ts_code": "002448.SZ", "name": "中原内配", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100716", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.66, "pe_ttm": 13.1481, "pb": 1.7432, "dv_ttm": 1.7153, "total_mv": 686085.5936, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.8, 26.6, 25.0, 26.9, 25.7, 27.4], "rev_series": [18.2, 24.5, 23.0, 28.6, 33.1, 39.2], "np_series": [1.5, 2.1, 1.7, 3.1, 2.0, 4.1], "roe_series": [5.5, 7.5, 5.6, 9.7, 6.0, 11.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 44.5, "np_ttm": 5.2, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 26.6, "gm_std": 0.8, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 8.9, "roe_median": 7.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 30.0, "fix_assets": 20.6, "goodwill_ratio": 6.9, "pb_calc": 1.74, "capex_dep": 0.52, "interest_debt": 10.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 35.1, "debt_mv": 15.1, "payout": 28.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.4, "np_cagr3": 34.8, "rev_yoy": 27.0, "np_yoy": 48.1, "np_vol": 54.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.6, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 12.6, "fwd_pe2": 10.7, "fwd_g1": 4.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["气缸套", 23.0], ["制动鼓/盘", 7.0], ["制动鼓", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 114.7, "ret_prev2_year": -4.0, "ret_ytd": -8.4, "ret_pivot": 137.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.0, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": 17.7, "mdd_250": -44.4, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 65.8}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 52, "hard": 48, "bondness": 24}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 48%,PE TTM 13.1 倍 但前瞻 PE 12.6 倍,PEG 0.70。", "自由现金流 1.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 18%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 30%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 0.52 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.1 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 18%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -1% / -27%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "中原内配:PE 比行业中位低 17.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.5个百分点。"]}}