{"F": {"ts_code": "002446.SZ", "name": "盛路通信", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.17, "pe_ttm": 154.1174, "pb": 3.0675, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 747894.6269, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.1, 38.6, 39.1, 37.6, 33.3, 30.1], "rev_series": [11.5, 9.6, 14.2, 11.9, 10.8, 12.1], "np_series": [1.8, -2.1, 2.4, 0.5, -7.5, 0.7], "roe_series": [6.2, -7.2, 8.1, 1.7, -26.4, 2.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.5, "gm_median": 37.6, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": 4.4, "roe_median": 1.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 17.7, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.07, "capex_dep": 2.5, "interest_debt": 5.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.3, "debt_ratio": 36.0, "debt_mv": 7.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": -34.1, "rev_yoy": -4.3, "np_yoy": -36.7, "np_vol": 632.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 43.0], ["微波电子", 19.0], ["微波通信天线", 9.0], ["微波通信器件", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 60.2, "ret_prev2_year": -21.1, "ret_ytd": -22.1, "ret_pivot": 47.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.2, "ret_60": -24.2, "ret_120": -22.3, "ret_250": -1.4, "mdd_250": -50.7, "vol_250": 58.6, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 60, "hard": 28, "bondness": 35}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 154 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 6 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.6%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.6%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 2.50 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 154.1 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 59%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -24% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "盛路通信:PE 比行业中位高 75.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点。"]}}