{"F": {"ts_code": "002445.SZ", "name": "中南文化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 3.18, "pe_ttm": 170.7348, "pb": 3.3011, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 755761.185, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-4.6, 19.4, 18.3, 25.6, 21.9, 18.8], "rev_series": [3.9, 4.8, 6.6, 7.2, 9.2, 11.7], "np_series": [1.3, 2.1, 0.3, 1.3, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [15.1, 12.0, 1.4, 6.3, 2.6, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.5, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 19.4, "gm_std": 2.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 22.9, "npm_median": 7.5, "roe_median": 3.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.6, "fix_assets": 4.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.3, "capex_dep": 2.08, "interest_debt": 1.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 1.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 21.2, "np_cagr3": 39.1, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": -49.8, "np_vol": 160.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["法兰", 37.0], ["压力容器", 19.0], ["管件", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.1, "ret_prev2_year": 3.4, "ret_ytd": 22.3, "ret_pivot": 86.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 7.8, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": -29.2, "ret_250": 20.9, "mdd_250": -41.0, "vol_250": 52.6, "pos_52w": 70.8}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 51, "hard": 22, "bondness": 5}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 170.7 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 22.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 2.08 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 170.7 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -2% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "中南文化:PE 比行业中位高 120.1倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.2个百分点。"]}}