{"F": {"ts_code": "002444.SZ", "name": "巨星科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100713", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 30.55, "pe_ttm": 14.3579, "pb": 1.8953, "dv_ttm": 2.1277, "total_mv": 3649130.901, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.6, 25.1, 26.5, 31.8, 32.0, 32.7], "rev_series": [85.4, 109.2, 126.1, 109.3, 148.0, 146.7], "np_series": [13.5, 12.7, 14.2, 16.9, 23.0, 25.1], "roe_series": [16.6, 13.1, 11.8, 12.0, 14.7, 14.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 153.1, "np_ttm": 25.4, "ocf_ttm": 21.8, "fcf_ttm": 14.4, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 31.8, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": 15.5, "roe_median": 13.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.6, "fix_assets": 25.0, "goodwill_ratio": 9.3, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 2.53, "interest_debt": 31.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 24.6, "debt_mv": 8.6, "payout": 25.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": 20.9, "rev_yoy": 9.2, "np_yoy": 2.5, "np_vol": 13.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 12.3, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 16.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["手工具", 34.0], ["工业工具", 10.0], ["电动工具", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.1, "ret_prev2_year": 49.0, "ret_ytd": -9.1, "ret_pivot": 14.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.7, "ret_60": 1.8, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": -11.1, "mdd_250": -27.0, "vol_250": 41.1, "pos_52w": 79.8}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 52, "hard": 15, "bondness": 40}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 14.4 倍、股息率 2.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%、固定资产占比 10%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.8%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.53 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.4 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / 2% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "巨星科技:PE 比行业中位低 36.2倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点。"]}}