{"F": {"ts_code": "002443.SZ", "name": "金洲管道", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "钢铁", "sw2": "特钢Ⅱ", "sw3": "特钢Ⅲ", "ind": "特钢Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.74, "pe_ttm": 33.7467, "pb": 1.6378, "dv_ttm": 0.2712, "total_mv": 559055.127, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.6, 12.1, 10.9, 12.3, 10.9, 10.5], "rev_series": [51.1, 70.4, 60.9, 57.4, 46.2, 42.6], "np_series": [5.8, 3.9, 2.4, 2.8, 2.0, 1.4], "roe_series": [22.0, 13.0, 7.6, 8.8, 5.9, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.9, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 10.9, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -3.7, "npm_median": 5.0, "roe_median": 7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.5, "fix_assets": 6.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.64, "capex_dep": 0.2, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 22.2, "debt_mv": 7.6, "payout": 10.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.2, "np_cagr3": -16.4, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": 48.3, "np_vol": 21.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 3.0, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["绿色民用类", 50.0], ["能源输送类", 35.0], ["配件与服务", 4.0], ["服务及配件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 43.9, "ret_prev2_year": -13.9, "ret_ytd": 32.1, "ret_pivot": 117.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 15.1, "ret_60": -4.5, "ret_120": 12.6, "ret_250": 52.3, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 46.3, "pos_52w": 80.3}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 43, "hard": 23, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 33.7 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 10.9%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 0.20 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 33.7 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 52%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 15% / -4% / 13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「特钢Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 15.6 / 股息率 3.2% / 毛利率 11.3% / 固定资产占比 37% / 分红率 50%。", "金洲管道:PE 比行业中位高 18.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.9个百分点。"]}}