{"F": {"ts_code": "002441.SZ", "name": "众业达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.31, "pe_ttm": 20.9609, "pb": 1.0198, "dv_ttm": 6.0168, "total_mv": 452515.7316, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [9.8, 9.9, 9.6, 9.6, 8.2, 8.6], "rev_series": [107.4, 125.6, 121.3, 119.1, 110.7, 108.0], "np_series": [2.6, 4.2, 3.0, 2.5, 1.7, 1.9], "roe_series": [6.6, 9.9, 6.7, 5.6, 3.7, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 110.6, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": -0.6, "gm_median": 9.6, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -0.2, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 5.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.3, "fix_assets": 7.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 35.2, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 96.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -3.8, "np_cagr3": -13.9, "rev_yoy": 4.8, "np_yoy": 21.1, "np_vol": 34.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["低压电气产品分销", 31.0], ["工控产品分销", 15.0], ["中压电气产品分销", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.4, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": -8.7, "ret_pivot": 54.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 5.2, "ret_120": -21.2, "ret_250": -9.8, "mdd_250": -34.6, "vol_250": 34.8, "pos_52w": 73.3}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 45, "hard": 16, "bondness": 84}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 97%、股息率 6.0%、营收 3 年复合 -3.8%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 -0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 9.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.0 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 5% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "众业达:PE 比行业中位低 22.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.6个百分点。"]}}