{"F": {"ts_code": "002440.SZ", "name": "闰土股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "纺织化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.3, "pe_ttm": 13.0397, "pb": 1.4409, "dv_ttm": 1.4806, "total_mv": 1494919.867, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 27.4, 20.6, 15.8, 17.4, 19.4], "rev_series": [52.3, 55.7, 62.7, 55.9, 57.0, 57.3], "np_series": [7.9, 8.4, 6.1, 0.5, 2.1, 6.7], "roe_series": [8.8, 9.0, 6.4, 0.5, 2.3, 6.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 66.1, "np_ttm": 11.5, "ocf_ttm": 8.5, "fcf_ttm": 8.1, "fcf_yield": 5.4, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 19.4, "gm_std": 4.0, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -6.2, "npm_median": 10.1, "roe_median": 6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.3, "fix_assets": 23.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.44, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 5.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 14.2, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 78.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": 3.3, "rev_yoy": 32.5, "np_yoy": 318.7, "np_vol": 170.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 62.0, "earn_yield": 7.7, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 14.1, "fwd_pe2": 12.0, "fwd_g1": -8.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 0.78, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["染料", 37.0], ["其他化工原料", 9.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.3, "ret_prev2_year": 13.6, "ret_ytd": 82.9, "ret_pivot": 159.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.4, "ret_60": 57.8, "ret_120": 0.8, "ret_250": 79.5, "mdd_250": -44.5, "vol_250": 55.8, "pos_52w": 87.6}, "S": {"duration": 28, "pricing": 41, "hard": 31, "bondness": 58}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 319%,PE TTM 13.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 14.1 倍,PEG 0.78。", "自由现金流 8.1 亿(正),次年预期增速 18%(3 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 19%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.4%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.4%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 19%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 13.0 倍 粗算,约 62%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 80%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 0% / 58% / 1%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "闰土股份:PE 比行业中位低 22.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.2个百分点。"]}}