{"F": {"ts_code": "002434.SZ", "name": "万里扬", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "底盘与发动机系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100618", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 5.82, "pe_ttm": 225.4465, "pb": 1.3047, "dv_ttm": 0.8591, "total_mv": 763933.2582, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.5, 17.1, 17.1, 17.7, 15.3, 12.1], "rev_series": [60.6, 54.8, 51.1, 59.1, 60.1, 54.5], "np_series": [6.2, -7.5, 3.0, 3.0, 2.4, 2.4], "roe_series": [9.6, -12.5, 5.5, 5.2, 4.1, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 46.0, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.3, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": 4.5, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -2.4, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.8, "fix_assets": 34.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.9, "pb_calc": 1.3, "capex_dep": 1.14, "interest_debt": 13.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.7, "debt_ratio": 36.6, "debt_mv": 17.1, "payout": 55.6, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 2.2, "np_cagr3": -7.2, "rev_yoy": -30.3, "np_yoy": -74.6, "np_vol": 115.3, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["车辆传/驱动系统及配件", 32.0], ["变速器及配件", 32.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 56.7, "ret_prev2_year": -13.6, "ret_ytd": -38.6, "ret_pivot": 22.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.7, "ret_60": -14.7, "ret_120": -32.9, "ret_250": -32.1, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 38.7, "pos_52w": 53.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 59, "bondness": 51}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 37%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 2.7 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 1.14 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 225.4 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -32%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -15% / -33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "万里扬:PE 比行业中位高 195.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.3个百分点。"]}}