{"F": {"ts_code": "002431.SZ", "name": "ST棕榈", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "建筑装饰", "sw2": "基础建设", "sw3": "园林工程", "ind": "基础建设", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20100610", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1.39, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 15.3948, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 250534.2672, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.7, 10.7, 6.8, 10.1, 1.8, 3.9], "rev_series": [48.2, 40.5, 42.4, 40.5, 30.6, 20.2], "np_series": [0.4, -7.5, -6.9, -9.4, -15.8, -11.9], "roe_series": [1.0, -18.0, -17.3, -25.1, -63.8, -114.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.0, "np_ttm": -11.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 7.0, "ocf_yield": 9.1, "gm_median": 6.8, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.49, "gm_chg_2022": -12.9, "npm_median": -23.7, "roe_median": -25.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.4, "fix_assets": 2.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 15.39, "capex_dep": 2.63, "interest_debt": 17.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 98.0, "debt_mv": 71.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -22.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -31.6, "np_yoy": 3.7, "np_vol": 713.4, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["工程施工", 45.0], ["城市运营管理平台", 2.0], ["城市运营", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.4, "ret_prev2_year": -17.7, "ret_ytd": -41.8, "ret_pivot": -10.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": -7.9, "ret_120": -48.9, "ret_250": -42.3, "mdd_250": -61.7, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 44.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 24, "hard": 2, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -11.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 98%,有息负债 18 亿,经营现金流/市值 9.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 1%,毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.0%(经营现金流/市值 9.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.8%,稳定度 49%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 2.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -42%,最大回撤 -62%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 44%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -8% / -49%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「基础建设」40 家中位:PE 11.7 / 股息率 2.3% / 毛利率 12.4% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 28%。", "ST棕榈:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}